Help with probabilistic forecasting in R

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You are asked by the business to provide one day ahead probabilistic forecast (not a point forecast) for the oil prices. The requirement is to use the gamlss package in R ( https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/gamlss/gamlss.pdf ) to forecast the probability distribution of the oil prices. The dataset available to you is the “oil” dataset within the gamlss package, where the variable “OILPRICE” is the response variable. You are expected to come up with a predictive model on “OILPRICE” and provide the forecast for one day ahead, explaining how you selected the model, the model diagnostics that you used to assess the model etc. The preferred way to report your findings is an R markdown. Alternative you can report your finding by an R script or any other tool, in a way that does not require further processing. You can use the code below to install the gamlss package in R and extract the oil data. # install the gamlss package install.packages(c("gamlss","gamlss.add","gamlss.dist")) library(gamlss) library(gamlss.add) library(gamlss.dist) # extract the oil dataset data(oil)

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